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☆ Appetite for stocks drives VIX options as investors guard portfolios
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

VIX options contracts averaged nearly 760,000 daily, surpassing the record set in 2017, according to Cboe Global Markets (CBOE.Z), data as of Nov. 27. Such investors are "looking at trading VIX options as a way to potentially monetize their thinking", he said. Reuters GraphicsThe rise in VIX options trading is a change from 2022 when investors were reducing equities exposure and hoarding cash, according to CBOE data. With the VIX averaging 17 this year, VIX options' trading volume as a share of overall options volume is at 1.76%, the highest since 2020 - a much more volatile year when the VIX averaged 29, according to a Reuters analysis based on Trade Alert data. Timing profit-taking on VIX options in an environment where jumps in the volatility index are fleeting can be difficult, said Roni Israelov, chief investment officer at NDVR.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mandy Xu, That's, Joe Ferrara, JJ Kinahan, Seth Hickle, Roni Israelov, Laura Matthews, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, . Federal, Cboe Global, Gateway Investment Advisers, Reuters, Trade, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Indiana, New York

ICBC's U.S. unit told market participants on Friday it was hoping to finish the cyber review over the weekend, but the sources said they expected it would spill into next week. The cyberattack sent ripples through the U.S. Treasuries market, where ICBC acts as a broker for hedge funds and other market participants, helping them trade in the securities. The Chinese parent then injected capital into the U.S. unit, allowing it to settle the trades and pay back BNY Mellon, the sources said. They also told market participants about the capital injection but did not disclose the amount or the reason for it, the sources said. SIFMA, the trade group, organized calls for market participants with updates, the sources said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, BNY Mellon, ransomware, ICBC, SIFMA, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Skyrm, Jack McIntyre, Harry Robertson, James Pearson, Naomi Rovinick, Yoruk, Davide Barbuscia, Chris Prentice, Mike Derby, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Paritosh, Zeba, Megan Davies, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang, Anna Driver Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of China, U.S ., ICBC Financial Services, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, ICBC, Treasury, China, U.S, New York Federal Reserve, Securities, Depository Trust, Clearing Corp, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, ICBC's U.S, U.S, San Francisco, Treasuries, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam, Carolina, New York

A BNY Mellon sign is seen on their headquarters in New York's financial district, January 19, 2011. "We're in a period when the Treasury market needs to be relied upon for its safety and liquidity," Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon, said in an interview. "And if on top of that you're trying to implement very rapidly a fundamental reassembly of the Treasury market, that's when you run the risk of having market functioning deteriorate." Liquidity crunches in recent years have raised regulatory concerns about the Treasury market's ability to function during times of stress. "Central clearing will strengthen the market’s core attributes of safety and liquidity in times of stress.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BNY Mellon, Treasuries, Nate Wuerffel, Wuerffel, Davide Barbuscia, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Companies Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Treasury, SEC, BNY, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New

A BNY Mellon sign is seen on their headquarters in New York's financial district, January 19, 2011. "We're in a period when the Treasury market needs to be relied upon for its safety and liquidity," Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon, said in an interview. "And if on top of that you're trying to implement very rapidly a fundamental reassembly of the Treasury market, that's when you run the risk of having market functioning deteriorate." Notably, in March 2020 the market seized up as pandemic fears gripped investors, prompting the Federal Reserve to buy Treasuries to support the market. "An extended implementation timeline in the final rule could substantially lower the risk that the transition itself could worsen market functioning," Wuerffel said in a note on Wednesday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BNY Mellon, Treasuries, Nate Wuerffel, Wuerffel, Davide Barbuscia, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Companies Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Treasury, SEC, BNY, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New

☆ Investors fear US data disruption from looming government shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A shutdown would disrupt government services including the publication of major U.S. economic data such as keenly-watched employment and inflation reports that can move equity and bond markets globally. "If the government data releases are suspended, this will increase volatility and decrease visibility, in a time when forecasting is already difficult," said Clifton Hill, global macro portfolio manager, at Acadian Asset Management. Hill said that investors would have to make assumptions based on survey and non-government economic data that is available. Key government data releases due over the next two weeks include jobless claims, unemployment and inflation, which influence monetary policy. Peter Vassallo, a foreign exchange portfolio manager at BNP Asset Management said delays in economic data "is unfortunately just something that we have to deal with as it comes."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Clifton, Hill, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, James Knightley, Peter Vassallo, Vassallo, Lynn Martin, Chris Murphy, Goldman Sachs, shutdowns, Acadian's, Moody's, Fitch, Murphy, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Jamie Freed Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Acadian Asset Management, Federal, LPL, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, BNP, Management, NYSE, Susquehanna International Group, United Auto Workers, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Clifton Hill

The risk, they have warned, is that large basis positions could once again exacerbate vulnerabilities in the U.S. bond market, which is a linchpin of the world's financial system. "These basis positions with these transformations are going to be a part of the equation because it's a necessary evil to get the capital to meet the demand." Higher supply comes as liquidity in Treasuries has been problematic for most of last year, partially due to rising volatility spurred by the Fed's aggressive rate hiking cycle. But Richard Chambers, global head of repo trading and global co-head of short macro trading at Goldman Sachs, told the trading forum on Thursday that the repo market was now more efficient. "We will have more levered investors buying Treasuries into 2024 and so demand for leverage in Treasuries will increase," he said.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Janet, Yellen, Jason Granet, Mark Wendland, ”, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, Treasuries, Treasury, BNY Mellon, DRW Holdings, Reuters, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Treasuries

Cboe declined to say whether those relations happened while Tilly was CEO or prior to his tenure at the helm. His resignation is the latest in a string of high-profile exits by CEOs whose personal conduct ran afoul of company policy. "When he became CEO, he grew that business from a little options exchange to a global, fintech and exchange leader. Cboe has exclusive rights to list flagship contracts linked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index through 2032. "The silver lining is it doesn't look like it is related to strategic or financial issue for the company," Lau said of the CEO resignation.

Persons: Edward Tilly, Piper Sandler, Brendan McDermid, Cboe, Fredric Tomczyk, Tilly, Andrew Bond, Bond, Owen Lau, Lau, Rosenblatt's Bond, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick, Tomczyk, " Lau, Jaiveer Singh, Laura Matthews, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Arun Koyyur, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Bill Berkrot, Nick Zieminski Organizations: CBOE, Inc, Piper Sandler Global Exchange, FinTech Conference, REUTERS, Rosenblatt Securities, Oppenheimer & Co, THE, Interactive, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru, New York, Lincoln

☆ ARM lifts Nasdaq ahead of NYSE on IPO capital raises
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Arm CEO Rene Haas looks on, as Softbank's Arm, chip design firm, holds an initial public offering (IPO) at Nasdaq Market site in New York, U.S., September 14, 2023. So far this year, 68 traditional U.S. IPOs on Nasdaq have raised $8.6 billion, surpassing $6.4 billion for NYSE, the data released on Thursday showed. "Today has been a milestone day for Nasdaq with Arm being the largest IPO of the year. Shares in SoftBank's Arm Holdings soared almost 25% above their Nasdaq debut price on Thursday, rekindling investor hopes for a turnaround in the moribund market for initial public offerings (IPO). This year, Nasdaq has won 87% of U.S. IPOs listings, and has led its rival for 38 consecutive quarters according to its own data.

Persons: Rene Haas, Brendan McDermid, Karen Snow, Owen Lau, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang Organizations: Nasdaq, REUTERS, New York Stock Exchange, IPOs, NYSE, Arm Holdings, Oppenheimer, Co, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S

☆ US exceptionalism thwarts dollar bears but Fed test looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Signs that the dollar will continue enjoying its yield-advantage over other currencies have undercut support for bearish views on the greenback. That theme will be tested in September, as the market braces for a flood of key U.S. economic data as well as the Fed's monetary policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's message at next week's monetary policy meeting could also influence the dollar's trajectory. While Englander is bearish the dollar in the medium term, the currency's "underlying drivers have been going so much in the opposite direction," he said. Other dollar rebounds this year, in March and May, failed at levels not far from where the dollar index trades now.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, It's, Vassili Serebriakov, Jerome Powell's, Steven Englander, Serebriakov, it's, Kit Juckes, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Futures Trading, UBS, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Standard Chartered, Reuters, TD Securities, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States

☆ Nasdaq gets SEC nod for first exchange AI-driven order type
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Nasdaq logo is displayed at the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square in New York City, U.S., December 3, 2021. Order types are programmed instructions traders use to tell exchanges how to handle their trades. M-ELO, first released in 2018, is a strategic order type that enables investors with longer-term horizons to trade with each other using a 10-millisecond waiting period. Nasdaq's research shows that the real-time AI order type has a 20.3% increase in fill rates and an 11.4% reduction in mark-outs, indicating the improvements AI-powered solutions can bring to capital markets. "This new order type can increase order fill rate and reduce holding time if successfully implemented, which could help Nasdaq take market shares from other exchange operators," said Owen Lau, senior analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Persons: Owen Lau, Laura Matthews, Mark Porter Organizations: Nasdaq, REUTERS, Nasdaq Inc, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Oppenheimer, Co, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ US dollar slips as traders cautious before Fed's Jackson Hole symposium
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen , which is on intervention watch, weakened 0.55% versus the greenback at 146.21 per dollar, with analysts now seeing the threshold for intervention at around 150 per dollar. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan , also on watch for intervention, rose 0.3% versus the greenback at 7.2853 per dollar. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London, said a firm dollar is problematic for both central banks since "it threatens to expose both currencies to undesirable weakness." His comments may set the direction for U.S. Treasury yields, which have driven the rise in the dollar in recent weeks. "If Powell stays on the theoretical side of things, that might lower implied volatility of the dollar and lead to a smaller reaction."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Sahota, Jane Foley, Jerome Powell, Karl Schamotta, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Laura Matthews, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Kirsten Donovan, Mark Potter, Will Dunham, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, U.S . Federal, FX, Fed, Reuters, Rabobank, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S ., , Wyoming, San Francisco, China, London, United States, Wyoming, Toronto, New York, Singapore

Here are some charts illustrating what has changed, and what has not, in meme stocks. Data from JPMorgan illustrate how quickly sentiment can turn among individual investors, who have been among the key drivers of moves in meme stocks. Retail investors sold a net $852 million in single stocks in the past week. The Roundhill MEME ETF (MEME.P), which tracks the performance of a basket of meme stocks, is down about 55% from where it started trading in December 2021, though up about 38% for the year. A quick rise, often followed by a rapid descent, is a fate common to meme stocks of both the past and present.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Marco Iachini, Vanda's, Iachini, Jonathan Krinsky, Tupperware, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Jamie Freed Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, GameStop, Tupperware Brands, Corp, JPMorgan, Vanda Research, Retail, Global, Reuters, AMC Entertainment, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoHONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Chinese fears of a spillover from missed payments on some shadow banking linked trust products and worsening consumer sentiment are expected to hasten a policy response to revive the country's cash-starved property sector. Zhongrong International Trust Co, which traditionally had sizable real estate exposure, has recently missed repayments on some investment products, fuelling contagion fears. 'CONTAGION'The trust sector had been a major fundraising channel for property developers seeking rapid expansion. The outstanding value of trust products invested in the property sector was 1.2 trillion yuan as of end-2022, down about 30% year-on-year. Still, exposure to the real estate sector varies from different trust firms.

Persons: Aly, Yan Wang, Nomura, Arthur Kroeber, Kamil Dimmich, Phillip Wool, Wool, Vidya Ranganathan, Laura Matthews, David Randall, Ziyi Tang, Sumeet Chatterjee, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, HONG KONG, Trust Co, Barclays, International Trust, South Capital LLP, China Equity ETF, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Zhongrong, Beijing, New York, London, Singapore, Summer Zhen

☆ In the Market: Funds fret over the fallout of Biden's China order
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Paritosh Bansal | Thomson Reuters | Paritosh Oversees The Work Of More Than Journalists Across The Globe Who Write About Finance | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The executive order along with anti-China moves by lawmakers and agencies means the overall policy is unclear and riddled with landmines. "It will be very important to monitor how this executive order is being received in Congress." The executive order affects venture funds and private equity firms that invest in Chinese companies in semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies and artificial intelligence. MORE RESTRICTIONSSome of the investors said the administration's approach in framing the executive order had been more consultative. U.S. Representative Maxine Waters, Biden's fellow Democrat, said on Friday the executive order and rulemaking on outbound investment must be "broadened and strengthened."

Persons: Florence Lo, Biden, Anthony Rapa, Blank, Blackrock, MSCI, Maxine Waters, Paritosh Bansal, Andrea Shalal, Laura Matthews, Anna Driver Organizations: REUTERS, Fund, Investors, Blackrock, U.S, Chinese Communist Party, The, Vanguard, Morningstar, Blackrock's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, Washington, MSCI, New York

☆ US investors flag retaliation risks after Biden's China tech curbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But several portfolio managers said the bigger worry was whether China would strike back, as it has in the past. "It is naïve to think that there won't be some type of retaliation from China," said Tom Plumb, CEO of mutual fund Plumb Funds. China could restrict exports of rare earths used in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and other components, or target other U.S. technology companies, Plumb said. SELF-SUFFICIENCYChina hawks in Washington say American investors have transferred capital and valuable know-how to Chinese technology companies that could help advance Beijing's military capabilities. Phillip Wool, a co-portfolio manager of Rayliant Quantamental China Equity ETF, said U.S.-China tensions were causing investors to miss out on China growth.

Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Biden, Rick Meckler, Tom Plumb, Plumb, Michael Ashley Schulman, Phillip Wool, Shashwat Chauhan, Amruta, Chibuike Oguh, Laura Matthews, Herbert Lash, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, Cherry Lane Investments, China Exchange, Wall, Micron Technology, U.S, Funds, Reuters, Running, Capital Advisors, China Equity, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, New Jersey, Washington, Rayliant

☆ BOJ tweak stirs yen volatility; dollar stays down after US data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. Whipsawing as traders digested the decision, the Japanese yen weakened 1.13% versus the greenback and was last at 141.05 per dollar in the New York afternoon session. U.S. annual inflation in June increased by the smallest amount in more than two years, with underlying price pressures moderating. CENTRAL BANK WEEKEarlier this week, the Fed and the European Central Bank announced interest-rate hikes, as expected. The ECB raised the possibility of a pause in September as inflation pressures show tentative signs of easing with recession worries mounting.

Persons: Florence Lo, Karl Schamotta, Adam Button, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Amanda Cooper, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Jonathan Oatis, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, ForexLive, Federal, CENTRAL, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Whipsawing, New, Corpay, Toronto, Japan, Bank of Japan, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar clings to gains with central banks in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The euro was down 0.49% at $1.1069 while sterling was last trading at $1.2823, down 0.25% on the day, kicking off a busy week for central bank meetings with investors expecting rate hikes in Europe and the United States. The Fed concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies. The BOJ is the most likely of the three central banks to throw up a market-moving surprise, traders say, with a tweak to its yield curve control policy seen as a possibility. "There's a deep sense of unease around what might come next from the Bank of Japan," said ForexLive's Button.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Adam Button, John Velis, ForexLive's Button, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Alun John, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, ForexLive, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, ECB, Fed, BNY Mellon, Reuters, Thomson Locations: York, Europe, Toronto, U.S, United States, Americas, New York

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. July's reading showed the sixth straight month of growth but was restrained by softening conditions in the service sector. The euro slid after PMI data showed euro zone business activity shrank much more than expected in July. The pound also dropped after British business activity data, but its move was less dramatic. There is plenty more for investors to watch this week - the Federal Reserve concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Manimbo, bitcoin, Laura Matthews, Tom Westbrook, David Holmes, Jacqueline Wong, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, P Global, Washington D.C, ECB, PMI, Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investors, Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: York, LONDON, U.S, Europe, Washington, United States, New York

☆ Big companies toughen banking partner screening after crisis - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - Large companies are spreading out their counterparty risk and increasing screening of their banking partners in response to the recent banking crisis that has been a "wake-up call", according to an industry survey to be released on Thursday. Multinational companies and those with sales overseas use banks, or counterparties to the transactions, to trade foreign exchange and hedge currency risk. "All of a sudden there's a wake-up call," said Eric Huttman, CEO at MillTechFX, the specialist currency arm of Millennium Global. Huttman said his firm has added dozens of clients since the banking crisis and all of them have spent more time asking about its counterparty selection process. "The broad questions that companies are asking are, is my banking partner sound and will they be there when I need them," said Dhargalkar.

Persons: Eric Huttman, Huttman, Amol Dhargalkar, Banks, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Muralikumar Organizations: YORK, MillTechFX, Millennium, UBS, Credit Suisse, Chatham Financial, Thomson Locations: North America, Europe, Swiss

☆ Analysis: Forex derivatives nudged out into the open as regulations increase costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - Foreign-exchange investors are moving more of their over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives trades to lookalike products on exchanges to avoid higher costs due to recent global regulations, helping inject transparency into a multitrillion-dollar market that is largely hidden from the public eye. The gradual behavioral change in FX derivatives trading is being caused by increasing margin and collateral costs, said Joe Midmore, chief commercial officer at OpenGamma, a derivatives analytics firm. OTC derivatives are privately negotiated contracts while cleared derivatives, though bilaterally negotiated, are booked with a clearinghouse such as a listed exchange. "They will also incur the operational, legal and custody costs of setting up margin facilities as well as the capital costs of posting margin," Houston said. "There is inherently risk involved in lots of people transacting derivatives with each other," said Riddle.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ben Feuer, Joe Midmore, ”, Michael Riddle, Paul Houston, Houston, ForexClear, James Pearson, Tom Arnold, Joe Spiro, Peter Vassallo, Riddle, Laura Matthews, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Banking Supervision, International Organization of Securities Commissions, CME, CME Group, FX, Reuters Graphics British, Financial, ForexClear, BNP, Management, Thomson Locations: Saudi, New York, Hazeltree

Investment-grade rated companies issued $152 billion in May, making it the busiest May since 2020 when the pandemic crisis prompted record debt issuance volumes, according to data from Informa Global Markets. "I believe we have seen an acceleration of issuance into May," said Richard Wolff, head of US bond syndicate at SG CIB, saying this was a result of debt issuance being pulled forward. This debt issuance spree is on the back of strong demand for what were relatively higher yielding corporate bonds after Treasury yields rose in May from levels touched in late April. New investment-grade bonds in May received orders that were three to four times the offering size on average, according to IGM data. CHANGING TIDEThe debt binge, however, gave a broad hint that the largest companies in the world are not optimistic on borrowing conditions later in the year.

Persons: Richard Wolff, Wolff, Manuel Hayes, Jessica Lehmann, Blair Shwedo, Jiyann Daemi, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, U.S, Investment, Informa Global, Junk, SG CIB, London, Insight Investment, Treasury, HSBC, U.S . Bank, IG, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: New York

May 28 (Reuters) - Global investors are gaming out how a tentative deal to raise the United States debt ceiling could ripple through markets, as lawmakers strive to pass the agreement through Congress before a June 5 deadline. U.S. five-year credit default swaps narrowed, meaning that the cost of insuring against exposure to a U.S. debt default fell. “The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday.

“The debt ceiling agreement is only the first step in saving the government from the brink of illiquidity.”The deal suspends the debt ceiling until January 2025 in exchange for caps on spending and cuts in government programs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by June 5. Optimism that a debt ceiling deal was near and hefty gains in AI-related stocks helped the S&P 500 (.SPX) close at its highest level since August 2022 on Friday. S&P Global Ratings stripped the United States of its coveted top rating over a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, a few days after a last-minute agreement the agency at the time said did not stabilize "medium-term debt dynamics." S&P Global Ratings, Fitch and Moody's did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

May 28 (Reuters) - Good news of a tentative deal for the U.S. debt ceiling impasse may quickly turn out to be bad news for financial markets. "That's where the debt ceiling matters." In that case, "the impact on broader financial markets would likely be relatively muted," Daniel Krieter, director of fixed income strategy, BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. Some bankers said they fear financial markets may not have accounted for the risk of a liquidity drain from banks' reserves. Bankers put it to hope that the debt ceiling impasse would be resolved without significant dislocation to markets, but warn that's a risky strategy.

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